tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8269737761286917895.post1218189669413962596..comments2024-02-19T23:07:54.532-08:00Comments on Coffee and Econometrics in the Morning: Recreational R: Simulating a Card TrickTony Cooksonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12565713889808330198noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8269737761286917895.post-89677866066229651032011-05-31T07:07:39.905-07:002011-05-31T07:07:39.905-07:00I think you are right.
However, with less cards y...I think you are right.<br /><br />However, with less cards you have to circulate the deck a few times to get good accuracy...<br /><br />The bottom line is you are going to have to go through a lot of cards to get to a point where you are pretty sure that you are right. By the time you get to that point there will some added error(say, a few percent) from the possibility of mis-counts on the way.<br /><br />It would be interesting to try the trick a few times and see how well it works. I'm sure for the practiced dealer and player you would have few mistakes. However, for the new player the rate of mistakes might be relatively high.Bretthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14187076346270828206noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8269737761286917895.post-67129393049817173832011-05-31T06:57:08.481-07:002011-05-31T06:57:08.481-07:00Thanks for the suggestion.
Actually, I had thou...Thanks for the suggestion. <br /><br />Actually, I had thought of including the possibility of making random mistakes (i.e., something like forgetting to update the count with probability 0.01). But, I didn't code it up because I wanted to see how well the trick would work under ideal circumstances.<br /><br />In a more general model, one might think that the rate of mistakes would increase as the number of cards increases (so adding more decks may not make the trick more successful... two decks may be about as much as a person could reliably handle).Tony Cooksonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12565713889808330198noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8269737761286917895.post-40583076536175361912011-05-31T06:37:33.559-07:002011-05-31T06:37:33.559-07:00One Thought,
Have you thought of including some n...One Thought,<br /><br />Have you thought of including some noise to account for having to go through so many cards to make the trick work? It seems like there could be a significant probability that a person (either the dealer or player) would mis-count a time or two during the trick.<br /><br />Interesting trick though. Thanks for the post.Bretthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14187076346270828206noreply@blogger.com